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Presentation Slides

This SERDP and ESTCP webinar focuses on DoD-funded research efforts to build upon hydrologic modeling elements necessary for strengthening DoD installation water resilience. Specifically, the investigators will discuss the development and accuracy of next-generation intensity-duration-frequency curves for enhancing hydrologic design, and coupled models to support evaluation of mission-assurance risk from disruption of water infrastructure.


“Enhancing Hydrologic Design Through Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Considering Snowmelt and Climate Non-Stationarity” by Dr. Mark Wigmosta (ESTCP Project EW21-5140)

This project supports ESTCP’s efforts to update hydrologic design to assist in the management of design risks encountered under changing climate conditions. In particular, this project developed improved understanding of, and responses to, changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall- and snowmelt-based runoff events. Observation-based precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to design hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, precipitation alone can be a poor predictor of flood risk. The project team developed and successfully tested next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface as an alternative to the standard PREC-IDF curves. NG-IDF curves are available at 1/16° spatial resolution covering the Contiguous U.S. for both historical (1950–2005) and future (2006–2099) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. GCM model structure uncertainties are also considered. Both historical and future NG-IDF curves are accessible electronically. This presentation will describe the development of NG-IDF curves and evaluate the accuracy of estimated flood frequency when used in standard methods of hydrologic design.

Coupled Modeling to Support Evaluation of Mission-Assurance Risk from Disruption of Water Infrastructure by Dr. Noah Garfinkle, Dr. Christopher Chini and Mr. Mike Duczynski (ESTCP Project EW21-5179)

Every DoD installation relies upon access to safe, reliable, and resilient water resources. The DoD consumes over 80 billion gallons of potable water per year. This project builds upon the rich asset, planning, and operational datasets available to installation water utilities to demonstrate and validate creation of robust quantitative assessments of installation water resilience. These coupled models are developed to inform planning and investments for resilience, support crisis mitigation, and improve policy compliance. This presentation will provide an overview of asset-based, graph-based, and simulation-informed assessments of installation water resilience.

Speaker Biographies

Dr. Mark Wigmosta is a chief scientist and technical lead for the computational watershed hydrology team at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Dr. Wigmosta also has a dual appointment as a distinguished faculty fellow in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department at the University of Washington. He has 30 years of experience in distributed watershed hydrology, including the potential impacts of land-use and climate change on water resources and renewable energy. Dr. Wigmosta has authored more than 55 peer-reviewed research papers and book chapters. He earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees in geology, and a doctoral degree in environmental engineering from the University of Washington in Seattle.



Dr. Noah Garfinkle is a research civil engineer with the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (USACE ERDC), Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL) in Champaign, IL. As the program manager for CERL’s water use security research program, Dr. Garfinkle leads a diverse portfolio of research and development, primarily centered around infrastructure security and climate resilience. He also supports the DoD climate action team. Dr. Garfinkle received his bachelor’s degree in environmental engineering and economics at Case Western Reserve University. He earned his master’s degree in civil engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign in the interdisciplinary sustainable and resilient infrastructure systems program, where he is now completing a doctoral degree with a dissertation focused on geospatial and network approaches to infrastructure resilience.


Dr. Christopher Chini is an assistant professor in the department of systems engineering and management at the Air Force Institute of Technology. He has served as principal and co-principal investigator on several projects including projects with ESTCP, the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, and Tyndall Air Force Base Project Management Office. His research has predominantly focused on energy and water systems, their interdependence, resilience, and climate vulnerability. Dr. Chini has received multiple awards for his teaching and research including the Universities Council on Water Resources Dissertation Award in Water Policy and Socioeconomics, Department of the Army Achievement Medal for Civilian Service, Instructor of the Year from the Sigma Beta Chapter of Sigma Iota Epsilon, and the AFIT Graduate School of Engineering Management Teaching Award. He received his bachelor's degree from Texas A&M University and his master’s and doctoral degrees from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.


Mr. Mike Duczynski is a research civil engineer at the USACE ERDC Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, in Champaign, IL. He works on the water use security team as the technical lead, supporting and leading several projects related to water resilience, sustainability, and security. Mr. Duczynski uses data science to aid in the interpretation and implementation of policy related to installation water utilities for the Army. He is involved in evaluating and transferring methods and technologies to installations through the installation technology transition program and in ERDC's installation energy and water plan (IEWP) program. Recently, his research has focused on methods through which information from digital pipe-flow hydraulic models could be used for asset management and the calculation of consequence of failure for individual pipe segments. Mr. Duczynski received his bachelor’s degree in physics from the University of Michigan and his master’s degree in civil engineering from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.


  • Modeling,

  • Decision Support Tool,

  • Climate Resilience,