Water systems across the United States are increasingly stressed by population growth, land use change, and the rapid expansion of water-intensive industries such as data centers. Pressures from beyond the installation fence line challenge DoW installations due to their deep interconnections with regional water systems. DoW installations use water for a variety of purposes and are similarly experiencing changes from evolving demand and use requirements for their mission owners.

The objective of the Tri-Service Water Security project is to integrate existing data and models to demonstrate how external pressures of regional water availability and socioeconomic competition influence and challenge installation-scale water security and mission resilience. The project will quantify how regional change can affect an installation’s ability to operate securely and maintain mission readiness. Specifically, efforts will focus on industrial growth, changing water demands, and population growth.

This effort shifts the focus from installation-specific indicators to understanding how regional pressures and large socioeconomic changes will impact water security for missions.

This project develops an integrated analytical approach that leverages existing systems dynamics models that situates installation water demands within broader regional water systems and resource competition.

Objective 1. Comparison of Existing Water Security Metrics. This task evaluates multiple different water security or scarcity metrics and their variability around DoW installations. Outcomes showcase the challenge facing decision-makers with no consensus between metric systems.

Objective 2. Installation-Scale Impacts of Regional Water Availability. This task centers around the development of a framework for scaling regional water security issues to DoW installations in CONUS, recognizing the different aspects of water availability, security, and variability across both scales. The task includes an analysis of existing policy and challenges in managing water for emerging sectors, such as data centers.

Objective 3. Situating DoW Water Demands within Regional Socioeconomic Competition. This task will identify the potential mid-term (10-20 years) impacts of these regional changes on installation water security and can also address water security implications of installation-scale changes such as installation expansion or mission change. Regional changes, including urbanization, land use change, and technology or industry changes can impact resource availability for installations. The DoW needs to be prepared to meet installation demands to maintain mission continuity and assurance while maintaining relationships with the surrounding community.

Objective 4. Case Study Demonstration. DoW installations do not exist in isolation and have complex relationships with nearby communities and their respective resources. The project will identify and focus on specific installations expected to face regional pressures. The outcome will be an assessment of these installations’ current and future water security risks due to potential regional and installation-scale pressures.  Using the framework case study analyses will be performed to do a comparative analysis between each installation’s respective regional stressors and vulnerabilities. 

This project fills a critical knowledge gap in a rapidly evolving socioeconomic system by explicitly connecting regional water system dynamics with installation water demand. Benefits to the DoW include improved mission assurance, enhanced awareness of water stress and considerations outside the fenceline, policy insights, and an understanding of critical water demands in an evolving landscape. By situating installation water security within regional socioeconomic and environmental dynamics, this project strengthens the DoW’s ability to anticipate risk, adapt to emerging pressures, and ensure long-term mission continuity. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2026)