Objective

The Department of Defense (DoD) recently released multiple strategies that highlight the growing strategic importance of the Arctic. Risks to key Arctic infrastructure threaten operations, facilities, and training. Villages, ports, airfields, radar stations, and Formerly Utilized Defense Sites (FUDS) are all critical civilian and defense infrastructure along the Alaskan Coast, where decreasing sea ice extent and increasing air and seawater temperatures have led to the largest coastal erosion rates on earth. Additionally, much of the permafrost on which infrastructure sits is thawing and climate projections anticipate rates of erosion and permafrost thaw to increase in coming decades. A recent study identified risks for erosion and permafrost thaw at hundreds of locations across northern Alaska. However, some villages and associated DoD and state infrastructure sites have received more priority than others. No framework exists to identify thresholds and hotspots for coastal landscape change at the local scale and place that into historical and future perspectives. This demonstration seeks to address this gap.

Technology Description

The objective of this three-year effort is to co-develop participatory assessments of coastal change hazards in two northwestern Alaska Arctic communities (Point Lay and Point Hope). First, historical remotely sensed and local geospatial information on shoreline position and permafrost stability will be synthesized into a project geospatial database. From there, site-level field measurements and community engagements will provide geospatial information on current shoreline position and permafrost state as well as historical rates of coastline change. Next, coastal and oceanographic measurements and models will provide projections for future rates of change for the coastal shoreline and at-risk areas for permafrost thaw. Technology transfer will include demonstrating project results, training village members to measure and analyze coastal position, and providing meaningful and lasting information exchange. If the project is successful, 1) local leaders and other decision makers will use the risk maps to identify thresholds and hotspots for coastal landscape change and in the development of potential engineered solutions, and 2) the operating procedures and frameworks developed will be transferable to other remote coastal locations encountering risks from erosion and permafrost thaw.

Benefits

There are obvious financial savings, risk reductions, operational safety increases, and environmental stewardship aspects associated with developing and applying methodologies toward better understanding coastal erosion and permafrost thaw in northwestern Alaska. Numerous FUDS and remote radar sites operated by the Air Force 611th Air Operations Group are located along the coast. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Alaska District and Engineering with Nature coastal program can also both benefit from rapid low-cost site characterizations. The Navy's Arctic Roadmap has recognized the future potential of increased shipping across the Northern and Trans-Polar sea routes while the U.S. Coast Guard is increasing their presence in the Chukchi Sea in response to a surge in eco-tourism and shipping activity. The remote villages that are the focus of this project and similar small-scale infrastructure sites will receive the greatest benefit. The geospatial information, frameworks, and training—the legacy of this effort—will also provide a roadmap for other villages and government agencies to follow as they identify their infrastructure protection needs.