This project will contribute to the natural hazards resilience of coastal Department of Defense (DoD) sites (located within 2000 meters of coastal or tidal zones) by analyzing potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. The project team will: (i) investigate the potential changes in intensity, frequency, track pattern, and severity of TCs under current and potential future natural hazards scenarios, (ii) assess the risk of TCs to DoD installations, considering accompanying hazards (e.g., wind, surge, precipitation), (iii) quantify the associated uncertainties, (iv) estimate the impacts of important modes of internal natural hazard variability on projected changes in TC occurrences, and (v) communicate the potential changes in TCs and associated risks to DoD site managers, engineers, planners, and the broader public. The goal is to enable DoD to conduct comprehensive and evidence-based assessments of their sites' susceptibility to TCs. This will facilitate proactive planning, effective management, and enhanced protection of the DoD's coastal and tidal zone locations.

To achieve the research objectives, the project team will use a suite of numerical models, employing a hierarchy of physical representations of TCs. This includes the Columbia tropical cyclone HAZard model, a statistical-dynamical downscaling model, which employs simplified TC physics to generate thousands of years’ worth of TC event sets. The project team will couple each synthetic TC track to wind, rain, and surge models to quantify these hazards for risk assessment. To understand the uncertainties in the projected changes and their impact on the risk evaluation, the project team will also use directly simulated TCs from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project. These COAMPS-TC simulations will be particularly useful for communication, as they will allow all hazards and risks to be depicted graphically and in detail. Overall, the combination of these complementary modeling frameworks will allow for the generation of a truly comprehensive picture of changes in tropical cyclones as well as the potential risks posed to DoD facilities.

This project will provide DoD site managers, planners, and engineers with more reliable information to better plan for the resilience of their sites, operation, and missions. The work will enhance stakeholders' understanding of natural hazards at hundreds of DoD facilities along the coastlines. (Anticipated Project Completion - 2028)