Environmental changes are understood as a serious global phenomenon that will affect all aspects of national and global economy, society, and security. To address related challenges, and with support from SERDP, this project aimed to: (1) develop and pilot-test approaches for risk assessment; (2) evaluate adaptation best practices in a series of case studies; and (3) evaluate approaches and needs for services to support adaptation planning compatible with Department of Defense (DoD) decision-making needs and processes.

Researchers engaged DoD personnel through workshops and case-study pilots at four Southwest installations, identifying gaps, needs, and opportunities for integrating adaptive practices into DoD operations. They explored obstacles to adopting adaptation measures and potential solutions.

Risk assessments were conducted at Fort Huachuca (U.S. Army), Barry M. Goldwater Range East (U.S. Air Force), Barry M. Goldwater Range West (U.S. Marines), and Naval Base Coronado (U.S. Navy). The team examined the impact of top-down DoD policies on Base management and identified factors determining whether an installation prioritizes immediate needs or long-term planning. Case studies at FTH and NBC tested strategies to align adaptation measures with Base management priorities.

To achieve project objectives, researchers:

• Tested methods to assess environmental risks and identify tools needed by DoD personnel to evaluate vulnerabilities.

• Demonstrated proof of concept by using accessible data and tools to assess wildfire and post-fire flood risks.

• Developed pilot projects to test participatory risk assessment and co-develop resilient strategies with installation personnel.

• Convened a workshop of related SERDP projects, synthesizing expert advice on risk assessment and decision-support needs.

• Co-developed a decision-support process for managing wildland fire risks, assessing best practices from defense departments, industries, and government entities.

Researchers assessed current and future environmental impacts and risks at all four bases, finding that integrating risks into existing decision-making by linking projected risks to past impacts actively engages managers by focusing on immediate challenges. Addressing current issues builds capacity and interest in science-based solutions for future planning. Key issues included sea level rise, wildfire, flooding, invasive species, and variability impacts.

While bases have some capacity to integrate environmental information, they lack resources for comprehensive risk studies. The project team provided summaries of relevant data on wildfire, flooding, and other near-term risks. At FTH, researchers partnered with the Environment and Natural Resources Division to assess how fire management strategies could be influenced by changing environmental factors. At NBC, they helped evaluate the risk of elevated fire hazards due to past land use and environmental factors using publicly available tools.

Intensive pilot projects tested engagement hypotheses at both NBC and FTH, focusing on wildfire and post-fire flood risks. Researchers found increasing wildfire risk at both bases over multi-decade periods, and a sharply increasing risk of post-fire flooding at FTH due to fire behavior and drought-induced vegetation changes.

Interactions with installations provided clear lessons for decision-making. Base management was receptive to adaptation actions, but immediate priorities dominate resource allocation. Without designated funding, management must divert scarce resources from competing needs. To address this, researchers developed a model that emphasizes “mainstreaming” environmental considerations into existing priorities, helping managers transition from present concerns to future challenges.

Installations are the "front lines" of adaptation in the DoD. The focus on installations allowed researchers to develop a strategy tailored to the needs and challenges at this level, including: (1) assessing data and information needs, (2) evaluating base-wide risk, (3) engaging personnel, (4) communicating environmental information, (5) integrating adaptation into DoD practices and policies, (6) addressing DoD institutional norms, leadership, and partnerships, and (7) providing services to support DoD installations. This model shows promise in accelerating the adoption of adaptation planning at all levels of the DoD.