The objective of this Statement of Need (SON) is to develop better predictions of stormwater impacts. The successful research will develop a modular, integrated modeling framework paired with standardized Conceptual Site Model (CSM) approaches to simulate cross-media stormwater dynamics, infrastructure performance, and chemical of concern (COC) transport.
The proposed work should address a transition from single-focus, deterministic modeling to an integrated, probabilistic, and decision-relevant framework. Research interests include the following:
- Develop integrated conceptual site models for COCs currently regulated with specific discharge limits (e.g., metals, oil, grease. PAHs or PCBs), as well as emerging that may not have specific limits (e.g., PFAS, 6-PPDq, microplastics).
- Develop integrated stormwater modeling frameworks coupling multidisciplinary submodels—spanning hydrology, hydraulics, water quality, and chemical transport—to quantify system vulnerabilities and predict COC migration under discrete, compound, and sequential environmental events.
- Develop integrated stormwater modeling frameworks that specifically characterize and model the range of flows and COC loads. The modeling framework should incorporate probabilistic risk assessment methodologies and uncertainty quantification to identify the critical parameters driving environmental and operational risk, as opposed to single, deterministic outputs.
Proposers must explicitly state how the proposed effort builds on previous research and addresses key data gaps. Research and development activities at laboratory-, bench, or field-scale will be considered. Work does not necessarily have to culminate in a field-scale effort.
Successful research will lead to a defensible, risk-informed predictive capability that allows installations to focus limited resources on the most consequential vulnerabilities. Adopting an integrated modeling and CSM framework will replace compartmentalized, single-discipline evaluations with a defensible, whole-system understanding of stormwater and COC pathways. This approach will enable installation managers and engineers to:
- Identify cascading drainage failures and localized COC pathways before critical thresholds are exceeded.
- Evaluate the combined risks of compound hazards (such as coastal storm surge paired with intense precipitation) and sequential stressors (such as post-wildfire rainfall) on conveyance networks and receiving waters.
- Provide an objective, probabilistic basis for resilient infrastructure design, capital improvement investments, and risk-informed regulatory compliance.
- Reduce long-term life-cycle costs by targeting monitoring programs and remedial investments at high-sensitivity processes identified through global uncertainty analysis.
Stormwater impacts arise from interacting processes that involve the atmosphere, land surface, subsurface, drainage networks, coastal systems, and built infrastructure. Because these processes are often represented using separate models developed by different research communities, evaluating system-wide vulnerabilities, feedbacks, and cascading impacts remain constrained. Foundational to addressing these challenges is the CSM, which integrates multiple scientific disciplines to provide a qualitative description of site features, geology, hydrology, COC sources, and potential receptors to communicate the distribution, transport behavior, and risk posed by legacy or emerging COCs.
Research is needed to develop a modular, integrated modeling framework that couples relevant submodels for precipitation, runoff, infiltration, flooding, infrastructure performance, water quality, and COC transport in various phases (e.g., dissolved, sorbed to mobilized sediment). Further, these frameworks must support probabilistic predictions rather than producing single deterministic outcomes. Ultimately, the system must characterize the range and likelihood of impacts from single events (e.g., 10-year storm), compound events (e.g., rainfall and storm surge), and sequences of events (e.g., wildfire followed by rainfall), identifying the assumptions, parameters, and processes that contribute most strongly to predictive uncertainty to provide a scientifically defensible basis for risk-informed planning, design, and decision-making.
The cost and time to meet the requirements of this SON are at the discretion of the proposer. Two options are available:
Standard Proposals: These proposals describe a complete research effort. The proposer should incorporate the appropriate time, schedule, and cost requirements to accomplish the scope of work proposed. SERDP projects normally run from two to five years in length and vary considerably in cost consistent with the scope of the effort. It is expected that most proposals will fall into this category.
Limited Scope Proposals: Proposers with innovative approaches to the SON that entail high technical risk or have minimal supporting data may submit a Limited Scope Proposal for funding up to $350,000 and approximately one year in duration. Such proposals may be eligible for follow-on funding if they result in a successful initial project. The objective of these proposals should be to acquire the data necessary to demonstrate proof-of-concept or reduction of risk that will lead to development of a future Standard Proposal. Proposers should submit Limited Scope Proposals in accordance with the SERDP Core Solicitation instructions and deadlines.
Anthony Danko, Ph.D., P.E.
SERDP & ESTCP Program Manager
Environmental Restoration
