The objective of this Statement of Need (SON) is to determine the antiquity, range of variability, and climate sensitivity of DoD-relevant terrestrial or peatland ecosystems in key Department of Defense (DoD) geographies, specifically Alaska and the southeastern United States, by developing, validating, and applying paleoenvironmental records spanning all or part of the past 12,000 years. These records will provide baseline data identifying important historical drivers of ecosystem variation and potential transformation thresholds. Specific activities that may help achieve the larger goal of understanding ecosystem history include:

• Refine, test, and apply established and emerging indicators for paleoecological and paleoenvironmental inference.
• Characterize historical disturbance regimes, including their sensitivity to climate variation and change.
• Differentiate ecologically important taxa to species (e.g., Betula, Picea, Pinus, Quercus) or genus level (e.g., Poaceae, Cyperaceae).
• Assess, where relevant, the roles of Indigenous peoples in creating and maintaining prehistoric ecosystems by use of fire and other technologies.
• Determine the extent to which land-use practices and environmental changes have driven ecosystem changes since European settlement.
• Determine how and when palaeoecological sciences can be quantitatively utilized to effectively set ecological restoration benchmarks, goals, or practices on a landscape.

Successful proposals should pay careful attention to development of accurate chronological control, to taphonomic processes underlying indicators, and to characterizing chronological and inferential uncertainties. Successful projects should involve records spanning at least the past 1000 years and may extend as far back as 12,000 years.

The expected benefit of this work is to provide long-term baseline records of variation in environmental factors, especially climate, and in ecosystem processes and properties, including disturbance, relevant to ecosystems under DoD management. These records will contribute to improved assessment of ecosystem vulnerability to transformation under ongoing and future environmental change, particularly climate. Documenting the range of past environmental variability and its effects on ecosystem properties can identify environmental boundaries within which these ecosystems can be successfully maintained (climate analogs), and therefore the thresholds beyond which they may undergo irrevocable ecosystem transformation.

The DoD manages a broad range of terrestrial and peatland ecosystems on its installations across the United States, and its mission depends on the properties (e.g., species composition, physical structure, water retention, fuel accumulation) of those ecosystems. Those ecosystems have developed within the past 12,000 years (i.e., since the most recent glacial period), and have experienced environmental change and variability since their inception.

Geohistorical archives, particularly sediments of lakes, wetlands, and peatlands, contain indicators of past environmental conditions and ecosystem properties in the form of organic remains (pollen and other microfossils; macrobotanical materials; ancient DNA; charcoal; organic molecules) and physical materials (inorganic sedimentary particles and molecules). In some cases, soil horizons, permafrost, and tree-rings can also provide useful information about ecosystem history. Emerging technologies have potential for refined inferences of past environments and ecosystems, including climate (temperature, moisture regime, precipitation source), hydrology (salinity, water depth, evaporation), fire properties (fuel source, intensity, severity), taxonomic and genetic composition, and human and large-herbivore activity. Integrated, interdisciplinary studies, applying both well-established and emerging indicator variables of ecological, climatic, and other relevant environmental variables, can provide detailed records of ecological changes directly related to climatic and other environmental changes, including human activities. Application of multiple indicators can impart complementarity and cross-checking.

Many terrestrial and wetland ecosystems on DoD lands are vulnerable to ecological transformation under climate change. Alaska and the southeastern United States are of particular interest, where historical records can provide important insights into DoD-relevant ecosystems, including coniferous and deciduous forests, savannas and woodlands, tundra, and coastal and inland peatlands.

The cost and time to meet the requirements of this SON are at the discretion of the proposer. The two options are as follows:

Standard Proposals: These proposals describe a complete research effort. The proposer should incorporate the appropriate time, schedule, and cost requirements to accomplish the scope of work proposed. SERDP projects normally run from two to five years in length and vary considerably in cost consistent with the scope of the effort. It is expected that most proposals will fall into this category.

Limited Scope Proposals: Proposers with innovative approaches to the SON that entail high technical risk or have minimal supporting data may submit a Limited Scope Proposal for funding up to $250,000 and approximately one year in duration. Such proposals may be eligible for follow-on funding if they result in a successful initial project. The objective of these proposals should be to acquire the data necessary to demonstrate proof-of-concept or reduction of risk that will lead to development of a future Standard Proposal. Proposers should submit Limited Scope Proposals in accordance with the SERDP Core Solicitation instructions and deadlines.