Installation planners and engineers require accurate storm severity forecasting to plan for and manage the hundreds of DoD sites located within 2000 m of a coastal or tidal zone. Given that non-stationary storm characteristics evolve over time due to climate change, methods of analyses are needed that adequately quantify storm severity changes in a sufficient manner to inform engineering and planning practice. Compound issues related to changes in relative mean sea level have been investigated extensively; however, a knowledge gap exists related to coastal storms and their potential evolution over time as the climate changes. Methods and tools that examine changes in individual storm characteristics, such as intensity, duration, frequency, and clustering, are a focus of this call for proposals. In addition, consideration should be given to the following: the evolution of the storm season as a whole, including shifts in the start, end, and central points of the relevant seasons; storm overlap and sequence; as well as compounding effects with other hazards.
Project proposals may consider numerous elements of interest such as the definition of non-stationary storm characteristics that will be considered; description of data or information proposed to be incorporated into the analysis to include estimates of uncertainty and/or reliability of potential storm severity tools; a plan to quantify uncertainty or confidence levels of findings (i.e., uncertainty in storm climate characteristics); and a clearly articulated plan for validation of tools, including monitoring or sensing of storm climate characteristics, if applicable. In addition, assessment of the extent to which observed or projected changes found during the analysis can be attributed to physical causes, discussion of forecasting identified trends or an envelope of trends using projected climate change or other variables may be considered. An assessment of changes to overall storm season, including beginning, end, and central points, storm sequence and overlap, and compounding effects with other climate hazards and discussion of the coincidence of specific or identified storm seasons with elevated water level trends or patterns may be considered as well as a discussion of the interrelationship of storm seasons with decadal or interdecadal processes on different coasts, to include climate modes such as El Niño/La Niña, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.
Pre-proposals followed the general instructions provided on the ESTCP website and should consider the following information:
- In the Technical Approach section, a detailed description of the assessment approach, including the availability of data to determine project effectiveness, and whether additional data collection will be required. Proposers should explain how the surrounding community would be both negatively and/or positively impacted by the projects. Proposers should clearly state the expected deliverable from the assessment and provide sufficient detail that the technical approach can be clearly understood by reviewers.
- In the Expected Benefits section, a qualitative and semi-quantitative description of the expected benefit of the resultant analysis should be included.
- The Technology Transfer section should discuss activities to engage with key stakeholders to facilitate information exchange and consider potential collaboration with installation planners and engineers to understand how the findings can be incorporated into existing processes.
The cost and time to meet the requirements of this call for proposals are at the discretion of the proposer. The proposals must describe a complete effort. It is anticipated that the scope of this call for proposals is such that a multi-disciplinary team will be required to execute a successful effort. Single investigator efforts will not be of sufficient scope to compete successfully. The proposer should incorporate the appropriate time, schedule, and cost requirements to accomplish the scope of work proposed.
