The objective of this SON is to advance understanding of the processes, pathways, and outcomes of recent and ongoing ecosystem transformation on lands and waters relevant to the Department of Defense (DoD), as driven by the effects of extremes in weather and their interactions with wildfire, invasive species, pests or pathogens, and land-use change. This understanding will support assessment of risk of future transformations and inform formulation of biodiversity conservation priorities and strategies. Successful proposals should address one or more of the following specific objectives:

• Investigate the interactions among environmental factors that drive ecosystems into diverse pathways away from historical states of ecosystem composition, structure, and function.
• Disentangle the key ecological processes that lead to ecosystem transformation and develop mechanistic models of transformation.
• Identify critical environmental and/or ecological thresholds or events that may drive ecosystem transformation for specific ecosystems and develop indicators to anticipate system proximity to a critical threshold.

It is anticipated that successful projects will focus on particular ecosystems of importance to the DoD, but development and testing of general frameworks will also be considered. Of particular concern to the DoD are ecological transformations that may create or exacerbate natural hazards to DoD installations such as extreme flooding, wildfire, or dust storms. Similarly, understanding ecological transformations that increase regulatory burden from the Endangered Species Act (ESA) or Clean Water Act (CWA) compliance, impact cultural resources, or decrease ability of lands and waters to support the test and training mission are of critical need. Proposals may benefit from consultation with DoD or other natural resource managers to identify transformations of deepest concern.

Improved understanding of the environmental factors and ecological processes underlying ongoing ecosystem transformation, and the critical thresholds that can trigger transformations, is expected to lead to improved management to conserve biodiversity on DoD lands and minimize impacts on military mission and operations. The fundamental science of ecosystem transformation developed in this proposed research will provide essential knowledge to assess the risk of transformations and thus improve decisions on appropriate management goals and effective interventions to implement these decisions.

Many of the ecosystems on which the DoD relies are undergoing or susceptible to rapid transformation due to interactions with fire regimes, invasive species, pest and disease outbreaks, and land use change. Ecosystem transformation as used here includes not only major changes in structure (e.g., forest to shrubland or shrubland to grassland), but also less drastic changes in composition, structure, and function, including to novel systems with no historical analogues. All these changes have important consequences for ecosystem function and biodiversity conservation, including of threatened and endangered species, as well as direct impacts on mission and operations through, for example, elimination of required conditions for training or testing. Therefore, it is important to be able to characterize the likely outcomes as well as the processes of transformation.

Despite the negative impacts of ongoing ecosystem transformations on DoD lands, and indeed, throughout the globe, it has been challenging to identify those transformations of greatest concern and to develop successful management approaches to either prevent transformation to less desirable states or mitigate such impacts. These management challenges arise in part from poor understanding of the processes and patterns of transformation. In particular, the pathways leading to transformation, including identification of critical thresholds that make transformations inevitable and irreversible, are poorly known, along with the mechanisms that determine these pathways. For example, to what extent is mortality versus recruitment failure driving change in ecosystems and what environmental factors are key to those demographic changes? Are demographic changes happening gradually through multigenerational replacement or more episodically? Knowledge of these and many other mechanisms are essential to eventually develop better assessment of risks of transformation and development of appropriate management goals and interventions.

The cost and time to meet the requirements of this SON are at the discretion of the proposer. The two options are as follows:

Standard Proposals: These proposals describe a complete research effort. The proposer should incorporate the appropriate time, schedule, and cost requirements to accomplish the scope of work proposed. SERDP projects normally run from two to five years in length and vary considerably in cost consistent with the scope of the effort. It is expected that most proposals will fall into this category.

Limited Scope Proposals: Proposers with innovative approaches to the SON that entail high technical risk or have minimal supporting data may submit a Limited Scope Proposal for funding up to $250,000 and approximately one year in duration. Such proposals may be eligible for follow-on funding if they result in a successful initial project. The objective of these proposals should be to acquire the data necessary to demonstrate proof-of-concept or reduction of risk that will lead to development of a future Standard Proposal. Proposers should submit Limited Scope Proposals in accordance with the SERDP Core Solicitation instructions and deadlines.